Type: historical-origins argument (off-timeline) · Assessment: plausible, arguably sound, that Daniel 4 is ultimately rooted in a tradition about Nabonidus (the seven years, the Jewish adviser, the turn from idols, and above all the historical Tayma setting converge too tightly for coincidence) / contested that it directly reworks the Qumran Prayer of Nabonidus specifically (the differing king, affliction, and unnamed adviser point to a common tradition, not a copied source) · advanced by W. von Soden, J. T. Milik, D. N. Freedman, and the critical mainstream (Collins, Newsom)
Related arguments: the madness of Daniel 4 — see also the ox-madness — malady, legend, or sign?
The words of the p[ra]yer which Nabonidus, king of [Ba]bylon, the great king, pray[ed when he was stricken] with an evil disease by the decree of G[o]d in Teiman. [I Nabonidus] was stricken with [an evil disease] for seven years… A diviner — who was a Jew o[f the Exiles — came to me and said:] ‘Recount and record (these things) in order to give honour and great[ness] to the name of the G[od Most High.’]
— The Prayer of Nabonidus (4Q242), trans. F. M. Cross, link. The claim: the story Daniel 4 tells of Nebuchadnezzar — a Babylonian king humbled by God for seven years, brought to acknowledge the Most High through a Jewish intermediary — first belonged to Nabonidus, the last king of Babylon, and was transferred in Jewish tradition to the far more famous Nebuchadnezzar.1
The thesis predates the scroll: Wolfram von Soden argued in 1935 that a Nabonidus tradition underlies Daniel’s narrative. The 1956 publication of 4QPrNab by J. T. Milik was seen as dramatic confirmation, and D. N. Freedman within months read the scroll as a more original form of the tradition. It is now close to the critical consensus, in its broad form, that Daniel 4 is “ultimately based on traditions about Nabonidus” (John J. Collins, Hermeneia; Carol Newsom, Old Testament Library) — though, as the assessment shows, that consensus attaches to the broad claim, not to the sharper thesis of direct literary dependence on this fragment.2
The convergences are dense and specific. (1) Seven — the scroll’s “seven years” answers Daniel 4’s “seven times.” (2) A Babylonian king humbled by the Most High and made to acknowledge him. (3) A decisive Judean figure — the anonymous Jewish diviner (gōzer) answering to Daniel. (4) A turn from idols — the king’s useless prayer to “gods of silver and gold, bronze, iron, wood, stone and clay” abandoned for the God Most High. And (5), most tellingly, the setting: the scroll places the affliction at Teima (Tayma), and Nabonidus genuinely spent about a decade at that Arabian oasis — a fact independently attested by the Harran stelae, the Nabonidus Chronicle, and the Verse Account, and one Daniel 4 lacks. The historical fingerprint belongs to Nabonidus, not Nebuchadnezzar; his absence from Babylon, and his son Belshazzar’s regency there, likewise stand behind Daniel 5. A transfer from the obscure last king to the archetypal Babylonian oppressor of Jewish memory is exactly the kind of move oral tradition makes.3
What holds. The broad claim — that the Daniel 4 story is rooted in a tradition that first concerned Nabonidus — is well-grounded and mainstream. The Tayma datum is the anchor: it is a real, documented peculiarity of Nabonidus’s reign with no counterpart in Nebuchadnezzar’s, and its shadow across Daniel 4–5 (the humbled king; Belshazzar) is hard to explain except by a Nabonidus substrate. On this the assessment is plausible, arguably sound.
What is overstated. The narrow claim — that Daniel 4 is a direct literary reworking of this fragment — goes beyond what the texts support, and three differences are the standing defeaters. First, the king is different: 4Q242 names Nabonidus; Daniel 4 explicitly and repeatedly names Nebuchadnezzar. Second, the affliction is different: a skin inflammation healed on confession in the scroll, versus boanthropy — ox-madness, grazing, animal hair and nails — in Daniel. Third, the adviser is different: an anonymous Jewish diviner who speaks after the healing, versus the named prophet Daniel who warns before the judgment. The single word that would bridge the two afflictions — Cross’s restored “[like a beast]” at the scroll’s broken third line — is a conjecture filling a lacuna, not preserved text, and cannot bear the weight of harmonization. Collins accordingly denies direct dependence: the two are “different developments of a common tradition.” A real minority runs the other way — Andrew Steinmann argues 4QPrNab is later than and dependent on Daniel — and Lange and Sieker posit independent derivation from a shared Persian-period polemic. That the direction and mechanism of dependence remain genuinely disputed is why the narrow thesis is contested, not sound.4
Plausible (broad) / contested (narrow). That Daniel 4 is ultimately rooted in a Nabonidus tradition is well-grounded and close to consensus — the seven-year humbling, the Jewish adviser, the idol-renunciation, and the load-bearing Tayma setting converge on Nabonidus, whose decade in Arabia and whose son Belshazzar shape Daniel 4–5 alike. What the evidence does not establish is that Daniel copied this fragment: the differing king, the differing malady, and the anonymous-versus-named adviser point to two developments of one older tradition rather than a source and its reworking, and the one word that would close the gap is a modern restoration of a hole in the leather. The honest verdict tracks that split — a Nabonidus substrate is very likely; direct literary dependence on 4Q242 is an open question, with a credible minority even reversing the arrow. Granting a Nabonidus origin does not, by itself, decide whether Daniel 4 also preserves something historical about Nebuchadnezzar — that is the separate question of the ox-madness.
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The Prayer of Nabonidus (4Q242), trans. F. M. Cross, Israel Exploration Journal 34 (1984) 260–264. See the Prayer of Nabonidus detail page. ↩
The editio princeps: J. T. Milik, “‘Prière de Nabonide’ et autres écrits d’un cycle de Daniel,” Revue Biblique 63 (1956) 407–415; the standard edition is DJD XXII (Oxford, 1996). For the consensus that Daniel 4 is “ultimately based on traditions about Nabonidus,” John J. Collins, Daniel (Hermeneia; Fortress, 1993) 216–219, JSTOR; and Carol A. Newsom (with Brennan Breed), Daniel: A Commentary (Old Testament Library; Westminster John Knox, 2014). ↩
On Nabonidus’s Tayma sojourn (the Harran stelae, the Nabonidus Chronicle, the Verse Account) and Belshazzar’s regency, see the Verse Account of Nabonidus and P.-A. Beaulieu, The Reign of Nabonidus, King of Babylon 556–539 B.C. (Yale, 1989); overview at Archaeology Magazine, “The Last King of Babylon.” ↩
Collins, Daniel (Hermeneia) 216–219 (“different developments of a common tradition”; the conjectural “like a beast” restoration). For the reverse-dependence view, Andrew E. Steinmann, “The Chicken and the Egg: A New Proposal for the Relationship Between the ‘Prayer of Nabonidus’ and the ‘Book of Daniel,’” Revue de Qumrân 20 (2002) 557–570; for independent derivation, A. Lange and M. Sieker. On the two Greek editions that show Daniel 4 still in flux, see the Septuagint of Daniel detail page. ↩